Safe Access To Every Playground in Toronto

So after a reasonably long hiatus, I'm back to blogging; this time about population access and playgrounds in Toronto. 

Why I am keen on this topic is: (1) As a new parent, I am starting to get interested in play and play spaces.  Seeing as how I will be visiting Toronto in June, I (non-altruistically) wanted to find out where is the best place to visit with regards to playground access for my energetic toddler; (2) I wanted to showcase some of the new (and awesome) Census data; and (3) I wanted to draw attention to what can be accomplished with Toronto Open Data. 

So given the above interest, I was able to generate some very interesting questions around playgrounds in the City. For instance:

  1. Where are all the playgrounds in the City of Toronto and how do I get that data?
  2. Where are the best and worst parts of the City for play access for young people (0-14yrs old)?
  3. Which parts of the City are the particularly challenging from a play access standpoint (ie where is there much potential walking travel along busy roads)?
  4. Which areas of the City may benefit from new infrastructure?

Thankfully, getting this information mapped and analysed was not too great of a challenge, thanks, once again to the good folks at open data Toronto.  In any event, I needed a few things to get started with this analysis:

First, I searched for a playground dataset - which I found here.  However, this was not all the playgrounds in the City, only ones located on City land.  To complete my set, I added in all  of the non-overlapping locations of junior or elementary schools in the City. (operating on the assumption that most, if not all, elementary schools have playgrounds).  I combined the two datasets, and spent about 10 minutes reviewing the data.  Check out the map below, (and please let me know if I missed any or added in an unnecessary locations).  

Where Are The Children

Once I had the playgrounds mapped, I then set about figuring out how kids would possibly walk to these play spaces. Safe walking to school is a big deal these days, however, safe walking to playgrounds - because they are often co-located on school grounds - is less well analyzed.  Nevertheless, the general consensus is that a safe walk to a playground should be short, protected and accessible.  Given the rising number of pedestrian fatalities in the City of Toronto, I thought that by taking an overview level approach to access, I may be able to isolate less safe areas for walking and see how these intersected with potential walks to playgrounds.

To generate these walks, I used the newest release of census data (Age by dissemination areas!), and mapped out the concentration of young people (age 0-14) in the City.   In response to some other commentators out there, there are still A LOT of young people in the City of Toronto, with the highest densities being located in the Yorkville, Thorncliffe, and Woodbine Gardens Areas...

MINIMUM Access

The next step is to get "geo-nerdy" and figure out access.  As mentioned in previous blog posts, this is best accomplished through the creation of pedestrian walking network and running a nearest location algorithm.  Thankfully open data Toronto to the rescue once again, a great singleline road and trail network set exists here.  Building the network was a snap.  and from that I was able calculate how far each population point was in time (as the kid walks - 77m/minute) from each playground location.   The findings are heartening. 44% of Children live within a 5 minute walk of a playground and 88% of all children in Toronto Live within a 10 minute walk of a playground. These are excellent numbers... but there is more to analyze here!

Diversity of Access

As we all know children do not walk to their closest playground but typically pick from what is local.  I therefore also mapped which parts of the City have the access to highest number of playgrounds in the City (see figure below). The findings are pretty interesting: 

  • 88% of children aged 0-14 live within a 10 minute walk of at least 1 play facility;
  • 66% of children live within a 10' walk of at least 2 play facilities;
  • 42% of children live within a 10' walk of at least 3 play facilities;
  • 10% of children live within a  10' walk of at least 5 play facilities; and
  • 0.7% of children live within a 10' walk of 8 or more play facilities

Safe Access

So, now we have a reasonable idea of access. But as I mentioned, what I am really after is safe access to playgrounds.   What I wanted to highlight then was the shortest paths to playgrounds that run alongside, or cross a major arterial.  Thankfully there are not many of these but they bear investigation. First, based on the theoretical 3,702 trips to their closest playgrounds, I noticed that 10% of all these trips in terms of distance run alongside major arterial roads, 17% along collectors, 52% along local roads and only 7% along trails. In terms of trips, 18% of all shortest path trips travel some appreciable distance (50m+) along major arterial roads.  

That being said, walking alongside a major arterial, is not nearly as dangerous as completing a crossing.  I recently read an interesting article that basically states that Children up to their early teenage years had difficulty consistently crossing the street safely.  I'll let you read the article, but suffice to say, crossings are important... Therefore, based on my preliminary analysis, it seems that 15% of all trips involve at least one major arterial crossing to get to a playground.  Now, full caveat here, I am looking at theoretical shortest path routes and not actual routes.  In reality, many children will not take the shortest path to their local park but the safest path... However, with that in mind the figure below is still indicative of potentially dangerous crossings.

bonus: which areas are spoiled for choice and where could the City benefit from a new play facility or two

If you managed to read this far, then you are certainly into geospatial analysis, so here is one more for you. Basically, with all of these data we can also find out which areas of Toronto have more playgrounds to access within 10 minutes given the population of children in the City.  If that didn't make any sense, let's try this way: I am trying to locate neighborhoods where the expected density of playgrounds is less than the expected density of children using a 10 minute walkshed.

To make this analysis happen, I found out for each dissemination area what is the total population of young people within a 10 minute walk as well as the total number of playgrounds.  I then divided these two numbers (and divided population by 100) to get a measure of playgrounds per 100 children within a 10 minute walking distance.  I then layered on locations of under-serviced densities to gain a full picture of access plus playground and population density. The output is pretty cool,  if a little busy.  To read the map, you can either look for green areas that have many playgrounds per 100 children (these could be areas with too many facilities), or look for the black areas that have no playgrounds and therefore have under-serviced populations (these are ares that may require facilities).   Areas that are orange are basically at the mean of 0.7 playgrounds per 100 children within a 10 minute walk!

As with all of my work, please let me underscore that this all preliminary analysis, subject to change.  yes, it looks professional and cool, but this is work done on my own time, between projects, and therefore may be subject to validation and analytical errors that I have not been able to suss out.  Please recognize this when you review or share this work. As always, comments are more than welcome! 

Every Sunny Patio in Toronto - Mapped

Now that, for the most part, the horrible months of winter are behind us, we can turn our sun starved gazes towards the most cherished of civics amenities.  Yes, I am referring to those unique public/private spaces: our Canadian patios.

You see, I have simple goal here at lgeo and that is to get GIS information to the masses as quickly and as efficiently as possible.  And by GIS information, I mean: Beer, in the sunshine. So, with that lofty goal in mind, I've managed to make a good start on this, and will have an app to help sort out thirsty Canadians in the medium term.  

For right now though, I'll walk you through one case study of patios, sunshine and all good things GIS.

The Toronto Case Example

To find sunny patios anywhere, we need some data to start with.  Fortunately for us, the open data revolution is making this easier than ever before.  Presented below is the sunny patio recipe that I've cooked up to make this happen:

  • 1 Massive buildings dataset with heights that is reasonably up-to-date;
  • 1 digital elevation model of reasonable accuracy and precision;
  • 1 list of every patio in town;
  • and the capacity to build a solar shading model for an entire day at regular intervals; and
  • some GIS wizadry to put it all together!

See, so easy! Now, thanks to the very good folks at open data Toronto,  I've managed to locate  a great list of businesses with patios, an awesome buildings dataset and the aforementioned elevation model.  I've got the last two bullets down pat so here we go.

The hardest part of all of this was getting the patios in the right spot.  Patios come in many flavors including roof patios, back patios, side and front patios, arcades and random corporate office balconies.  And in case you were wondering, Toronto has like 1,400 of these so that took some time.  Thankfully, GIS is really good at automating data management stuff like moving patios off of the middle of buildings to the block face so it wasn't too bad. Just in case you wanted to get an idea of the level of accuracy that I needed, here are some shots of how well these things are located (Torontonians see if you can guess the street in the comments):

Side Patios

Side Patios

Front and back patios

Front and back patios

Anyway, once I had the patios down, it was time to tackle the buildings and the associated shadow model. Full disclosure, there is some IP in here so let's just assume this was more or less magically created. However, the takeaway for how do this can be found on this amazing link here (full disclosure I am not as excellent as the NY times).  In any event, I've managed to create the map below for the June 6th prime patio day (use the sliders to change time of day, scroll wheel zooms in and out, click to pan):

Select the time of day:
adjust shadow opacity:

Once the shadows were completed, the next step was to figure out at what time of day any patio would be in the sunshine.  Some more semi-secret GIS later, we have  all of the data ready to play with in the map below.  Reddish circles mean that the patio is in full sun, blue circles mean the patio is in partial sun. Have fun with it, you can use the street view links to hopefully find the patios (I'm working on the view angle that will be added later).  

Select the time of day:
Patio Solar Exposure
adjust shadow opacity:

As always, I need some help with the exact location of these patios so any crowd sourcing of errors is appreciated.  And if you wondering, the beta app of this mapping will be released on android and iphone before summer kicks off.  Just in time to help you find your sunny patio as easy as possible.

   

#SakuraMap - A Cherry Guide To Vancouver's Bodacious Blossoms

As I have mentioned previously, I am a hopeless romantic who can't stop mapping intriguing things.  So, while developing new analytical approaches for measuring urban vitality is interesting, perhaps far more approachable is mapping and analyzing Vancouver's abundant and life-affirming cherry blossom trees. 

Now, while the fine folks over at the Vancouver Cherry Blossom Festival, have an excellent website and a great map of some favorite trees, they don't have any handy cartography that can be used to tour the blossoms. So, much like the map I made to help folks ride the ales, I figured I would use the integrative power of GIS to make some figure that would help people find the trees they love at the right time of year.

Every Flowering Cherry and Plum Tree in Vancouver...

This is actually, less easy then you might imagine.  Many do not know this, but there are more than 29,000 cherry (and plum) trees in this fine City. Viewing all of these trees on one map, at one time, is almost impossible.  However, from a little bit of research, we do know when most species have historically bloomed in the City. Using blooming period averages I found at VCBF, I was able to determine, on average, how long after the first blossoms of spring every other tree followed.  The results are a basic blooming timeline that can then be sequenced into an animation, slide show or movie for easy review and use in the field. 

The result are the slides and movie below.   What I've tried to do is use "best-available" data to create a best guess at when and where you can find blossoms this spring.  Now, I know that this map will not be accurate, so I want to try some participatory GIS to make it better. If you see a tree that is, or is not blooming according to my map, take a photo with your phone's GPS turned on, email it to me, and I will use that information to make my maps better.

In the meantime, enjoy the #SakuraMaps and happy blossom viewing!

UPDATE --- Please use this map here, to review in detail where things are blooming. Drop me an email if you find something out of whack.

Blooming Gallery

Blooming Movie (download here, animated gif available here)

Bonus Analysis

The maps above are great, but I wouldn't be doing my job as an analyst if I couldn't mix in a bit of decision support:  Therefore, I ran a quick analysis to find the best bike routes for each day of #VanSakura based on total number of trees and blossom trees per km/bike lane.  Please be advised that the list below is contingent upon a nicely spaced blooming schedule.  I'll update it as real data becomes available.

ID Date Bike Route Name Total Sakura Count Bike Route Name Trees / KM
1 March 19th North Arm Trail 221 Haro 31.3
2 March 20th North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
3 March 21st North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
4 March 22nd North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
5 March 23rd North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
6 March 24th North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
7 March 25th North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
8 March 26th North Arm Trail 220 Haro 31.3
9 March 27th N/A 0 N/A 0.0
10 March 28th N/A 0 N/A 0.0
11 March 29th Bute 2 Bute 2.6
12 March 30th Bute 2 Bute 2.6
13 March 31st Bute 2 Bute 2.6
14 April 1st 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
15 April 2nd 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
16 April 3rd 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
17 April 4th 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
18 April 5th 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
19 April 6th 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
20 April 7th 63rd Ave 22 63rd Ave 17.2
21 April 8th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 16 Richards 3.9
22 April 9th Midtown/Ridgeway 81 Rupert St 28.5
23 April 10th Midtown/Ridgeway 81 Rupert St 28.5
24 April 11th Midtown/Ridgeway 81 Rupert St 28.5
25 April 12th Midtown/Ridgeway 81 Rupert St 28.5
26 April 13th Midtown/Ridgeway 81 Rupert St 28.5
27 April 14th Midtown/Ridgeway 80 Rupert St 28.5
28 April 15th Midtown/Ridgeway 82 Rupert St 28.5
29 April 16th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 45 Chilco 8.6
30 April 17th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 45 Chilco 8.6
31 April 18th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 45 Inverness 7.4
32 April 19th Seaside 53 Inverness 7.7
33 April 20th Seaside 53 Inverness 7.7
34 April 21st Seaside 53 Inverness 7.7
35 April 22nd Seaside 53 Inverness 7.7
36 April 23rd Seaside 53 Inverness 7.7
37 April 24th Seaside 53 Inverness 7.7
38 April 25th Seaside 53 63rd Ave 7.8
39 April 26th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 215 Rupert St 39.9
40 April 27th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 215 Rupert St 39.9
41 April 28th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 215 Rupert St 39.9
42 April 29th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 215 Rupert St 39.9
43 April 30th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 191 Rupert St 37.7
44 May 1st Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 191 Rupert St 37.7
45 May 2nd Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 195 Rupert St 42.7
46 May 3rd Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 195 Rupert St 42.7
47 May 4th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 191 Rupert St 42.7
48 May 5th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 191 Rupert St 42.7
49 May 6th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 191 Rupert St 42.7
50 May 7th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 191 Rupert St 42.7
51 May 8th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 175 Rupert St 42.7
52 May 9th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 9 Rupert St 5.0
53 May 10th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 9 Rupert St 5.0
54 May 11th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 9 Rupert St 5.0
55 May 12th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 9 Rupert St 5.0
56 May 13th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 9 Rupert St 5.0
57 May 14th Off-Broadway / 7th Ave 9 Rupert St 5.0
58 May 15th Rupert St 7 Rupert St 5.0
59 May 16th Rupert St 7 Rupert St 5.0
60 May 17th Rupert St 7 Rupert St 5.0
61 May 18th Rupert St 7 Rupert St 5.0

Is Vancouver Dying? A Restaurant Vitality Perspective

There has been much attention these days focused on claims that we have reached "Peak Vancouver" and our gorgeous city is now on the decline.  Stories of millennial migrations, absurd property valuations, potential bubbles, and of course, the million dollar teardown trend highly in our local news cycle to the delight of news organizations in our otherwise dull city.  

But how much of this is media hyperbole and how much is fact?  Personally, I don't believe that Vancouver is dying and by two gross measures: our population and our economy, this City is doing very well. And more importantly, can we lump all of Vancouver into one giant failure bubble, or are there nuances to the vitality of this City?

Perhaps a better question is: Are there geographic expressions to Vancouver's vitality? I've already commented on population dynamics in the City, locations of alienated desire and of course where to find good beer.  What else can we map then?

Naturally, my thoughts turn to the service industry (restaurants) where two good ideas come to mind:

  1. We can measure the health of a neighbourhood's local economy through its retention of established business, specifically in this case, local restaurants. The theory here being that neighbourhoods with high restaurant survival rates are good places to do business (and therefore are nice to live in as well); and
  2. We can also measure local economic health through an analysis of economic growth.  In this case, we can look at the rate of formation for new restaurants in the City. The theory here being that neighbourhoods with high business formation rates speak to growing markets and exiting places to be.

Before we go any further let's nail down these two concepts:

  • Restaurant Survival Rate - Percentage of all restaurants that were open in 2011 still open in more or less the same location in 2016; and
  • Restaurant Formation Rate - Percentage change in total number of active restaurants by 2011-2016

Now, let's suppose that these two factors: restaurant survival rates and new restoraunt formation rates are not correlated.  If that's the case (and it is: r-squared of 0.0034!), then we can create a simple two variable model to classify the City:

ChangeAnalysis.jpg
  1. Areas where survival rates are low and formation rates are negative are likely areas that are, for lack of a better word, in decline. This means that in these areas long term businesses are failing and no new ones are taking their spots.  These are the doomsday neighbourhoods predicted Vancouver haters.
  2. Areas where survival rates are low and formation rates are positive are likely areas that are experiencing rapid change.  In Vancouver the four letter term for this would be: gentrification (gtfn?). 
  3. The third category is where we have negative rates of new business formation, but high survival rates for established restaurants.  I don't have a great term for these hoods but we can call them static zones.  That is to say, existing places do well, but its tough to get a foothold in these areas
  4. Finally, we have areas where we have a growing number of restaurants and high survival rates of existing establishments.  These areas can be considered by any definition as being economically healthy.

OK! Map it out already!

The figure below shows the state of all of Vancouver's 1,498 class 1 and class 2 restaurants in business today plus the 196 that were in business in 2011 but were not replaced by another business at that location. Overall, Vancouver has a 62% five year survival rate which is pretty good. Vancouver also has a 9.2% overall growth rate in restaurants, which is excellent considering our population only went up by 5% (cheap credit perhaps?).

Note the patches of green in International Village and Olympic Village...

Some Analysis...

To do some analysis, I made a layer comprised of Business Improvement Areas (BIAs) and the remainder of neighbourhoods based on some logical groupings to give me analytical samples of reasonable size.   Once this was done, I completed a simple overlay to get the following info:

There is a lot going on in the image above, so let's discuss quadrant by quadrant (please note that I use the question mark here "?" to indicate that this is just my off-the-cuff analysis of the data. In no way am I placing value judgement on any of these neighbourhoods or BIAs):

  • Economically Healthy? By my definition, most areas in Vancouver have healthy economics for restaurants. Overall, most areas of the City are seeing greater than 60% five-year survival rates and within these areas, most are seeing growth through the generation of new establishments.  Really interesting is the Chinatown BIA - which ranks as the best place to have a restaurant in the City (68% survival rate and an astounding 55% increase in new restaurants over 5 years).  Second to the Chinatown BIA, the Victoria Drive BIA (at Vic and 41st) has a 70% survival rate and has seen a 40% increase in new establishments!  Rounding out the "super growth" category are Hastings Crossing BIA, Other Mount Pleasant (ie Olympic Village and SE False Creek) and areas in the West End outside of the West End BIA (ie Coal Harbour).  All of these can be considered as gentrification candidates where suvival is low (RIP Crime Lab), but that is offset by tremendous growth.  
  • Gentrifying? Speaking of gentrification, the next quadrant certainly speaks to this occurrence... The Strathcona BIA (which stretches from Gore to Clark along Hastings, is seeing all sorts of new restaurants come (and go), but also has extremely low survival rates at 50%.   The "Other Downtown" area (ie International Village and North False Creek) has the worst survival rate in the City at 43% despite positive growth of 12%.  In this area, I suspect that the pace of rapid change has displaced many prior establishments and new ones cannot seem to succeed in this market (the same can be said for that mall....).  Finally we have the Hastings North BIA, the land of breweries is less kind to restaurants with only 50% of establishments surviving from 2011 to 2016.  Something tells me however, that this trend will stabilize as development along Hastings finally slows down.
  • Static? In my opinion these three areas (Point Grey Village BIA, Marpole BIA and Kits outside of the BIA) are the most interesting.  One the one hand they have very high business survival rates, on the other hand all have seen an 8% drop in the number of restaurants in the 2011-2016 time period.  Perhaps these are ultra-competitive markets, or perhaps some of these surviving restaurants simply persist with an older clientele.  Either way, if Point Grey Village BIA can find a way to grow, it would seem to be a great place to do business.
  • Declining? Something is going on in the Kits 4th Aveneue BIA and on Robson Street.  My current theory is that restaurants are being displaced by clothing stores. and other restaurants simply can't handle the rent shock of these newly minted "high-end" streets. I would welcome any other theories that explain a 48% five year survival rate and an 8% decline is restaurants over five years.

Conclusions?

I would encourage folks who have read this far, to start to think about what this data means and view it in the context of other economic trends in the City.  Personally, if we take a look at Vancouver dining scene, it appears to be vibrant growing and remarkably stable for most of the City. Taken this way, I would say that Vancouver is a long way from dying.  some small parts may be sick, but the rest of the City seems to be thriving in the foodie arena.

As always I welcome comments, feedback and differing points of view.  If you like this type of analysis, feel free to contact me and I can probably customize for it your needs.  Next week I promise to get back to beer and love, I promise.

Aaron

Bonus Dynamic Map

I'm playing around with mapbox for some of my online figures. Let me know what you think of this as well.

 

Analytical data below:

Area Name New restaurant at new location - 2016 Business from 2011 - not replaced New Business Replacing one from 2011 - same location Still In Business at same location 2011-2016
Kitsilano Fourth Ave. BIA 3 6 15 20
Other Downtown 12 7 15 17
Robson St. BIA 6 7 8 16
Dunbar Village BIA 0 2 3 7
Hastings - North BIA 6 3 18 21
Other Fairview 13 15 31 65
Strathcona Area BIA 4 1 6 7
Downtown Vancouver BIA 63 58 63 176
Other Kitsilano 6 11 16 46
Collingwood BIA 6 3 7 13
South Granville BIA 2 1 7 13
West End BIA 23 9 42 77
West Broadway BIA 7 3 9 18
Mount Pleasant BIA 8 6 12 36
Marpole BIA 1 2 2 10
Other SE Van 6 4 6 20
Other West Side 8 5 10 32
Other Kingsway 15 10 18 61
Fraser St. BIA 2 1 4 11
Other NE Van 12 6 7 24
Yaletown BIA 8 3 13 35
Kerrisdale BIA 6 4 5 21
Point Grey Village BIA 1 2 2 13
Other Marpole 7 2 4 10
Commercial Dr. BIA 19 5 16 43
Other South Main St 13 3 13 34
Other West End 7 1 5 9
Cambie Village BIA 8 3 7 26
Gastown BIA 11 2 11 32
Other Mount Pleasant 24 5 11 25
Victoria Drive BIA 11 2 5 16
Hastings Crossing BIA 13 0 8 12
Chinatown BIA 16 4 3 15

Ride the Ales! A Brewery Map for Modern Times

Taking a break from romance, I thought I would blog this week about my other favorite geographic topic: Beer!

As many of you know, I have two forthcoming apps that will use GIS and geospatial technology to make the world a more fun and interesting place.  In case you couldn't guess, one of the apps will involve dating.  The other is going to help everyone get a bit tipsier.  Indeed, I will be creating an application that helps people to get to sunny patios faster and in the nick of time to catch some rays.

While my PatioFinder app is in progress, I'll share with you folks a homage to one of my favorite cartographic styles: the Beck's London Tube Map of 1931.  I simply love this style and have seen it applied to so many maps and diagrams so excellently. I also love touring around Vancouver by bike sampling our diverse array of craft breweries. So....

The set up:

  • I sourced the most current list of breweries that I could get my hands on from beermebc here;
  • I devised some logical groupings of breweries based on geographic location (and cut out anything south of Dageraad);
  • I plotted and connected the dots using a shortest path route finding algorithm to determine my routing combinations;
  • I then plotted the breweries and the routes and then transferred them to a hexagonal grid to start the schematic process;
  • With a bit of artistic license, I ended up with the top figure;
  • I then used some fancy GIS to figure out timing along each route and used something called linear referencing to build the timetable for the bottom figure; and
  • You can see the results from the real world data and my transfer to "creative space" from left-to-right in the slider image below. (note: creative space can be easily accessed after only a few pints)

The results:

Well this worked out well, I would say.  I didn't have any overarching analytical goal except to use some skills I obtained building strip maps for pipeline alignments and applying them to something enjoyable like trip planning.  There are some notes and caveats that go with this map:

  • Schematic diagrams in GIS are hard to do.  Everything in GIS-land is made to be accurate and precise.  Building a schematic is neither.  Thus, I had to "force" my software to conform to my hexagonal wishes and requirements for reference lines... no easy task
  • I didn't include breweries to the south of Dageraad.  I'm only a little sorry about this, because my page size didn't work with the kind of scaling and I wasn't up to schematizing all of the arms of the Fraser. maybe next week....
  • If this has been done before, please let me know how you did it, as I am sure there are better ways to create a schematic diagram than the method I outlined above.

And with all of those out of the way, please check out and enjoy the final product.  If you want to suggest alternate names for the routes please feel free to do so in the comments below, and I will update the map. A downloadable version is available here.

Finally, I can't help but do some more analysis of population change and things that are cool and interesting in Vancouver.  Take a look at the interposition of breweries and population change over the last five years in Vancouver... notice anything?

Breweries and population change hmm....

Breweries and population change hmm....

Vancouver's Geography of Desire

or: Finding Vancouver's most romantic location?

....from the you "can-map-anything-column", this week's blog post is devoted to everyone's least favorite Hallmark holiday: Valentines day!  What I wanted to map this week was the geographic expression of Vancoverites desire for one another.  Thankfully, there is an amazing data source that reflects this from the Georgia Straight's "I Saw You" feature.  Truth be told, I am big fan of I Saw Yous, they perfectly reflect Vancouver's alienated passive aggressive dating scene, they are super geographical, and are rather sweet and thus speak to my romantic nature.  And, most importantly, I Saw You posts are also a treasure trove of semi-unstructured data!

A typical I saw you reads like this:

"I saw you at the southeast end of Sunset Beach Park walking your cute sausage dog. You were wearing a black coat with a furry hood. You are a beautiful brunette and you took my breath away as I walked by you. I saw you again later on sitting on a log at the beach and you gave me a glance as you got up and left. I was wearing shades, black jacket and pants, nearly shaved head and a beard..." - February, 13th, 2017

From this post we can clearly understand that shaved head / beard guy clearly desired cute dog-walking woman at Sunset Beach on or around February 13th, 2017.  As most posts are written in a similar fashion, we are able to extract from them: Space, place, time, gender, orientation, mode of transportation and a clear sense of longing for a connection.  These data can be mapped and analysed to reveal hidden truths about our urban environment. 

The set up:

  • After no small amount of labour, I managed to transcribe and locate about a year's worth of I Saw Yous in the Vancouver Area
  • I didn't map ambiguously located posts, or any posts outside of the City of Vancouver.
  • For posts which referenced bus rides (about 60% of all posts) I tried to intuit the location or simply used the starting point of the trip (A lot of posts refer to individuals staring longingly at each other for entire bus rides to Burnaby!).
  • Finally, I segregated each post into Man seeking man/woman or Woman seeking woman/ma

The results:

Given the readership of the Georgia Straight, it is not surprising that key locations for finding attractive people are centered around Main and Broadway, Gastown, English Bay and all of Commercial Drive (Man seeking are the blue hearts and Women seeking are the red hearts).  I've offset clusters of love to highlight dense areas of desire). Now, there is not much going on in Kits, West Point Grey,  any of Vancouver's breweries, Yaletown and basically everything south of 16th Avenue.  This suggests one of two things: (1) folks in these areas are more forward and actually talk to people they are attracted to; or (2) there are no attractive people in these areas!

Now, there are some very interesting differences between how men and women long for other persons: 

Accounting for exactly half of the posts, Women-seeing points cluster massively around Main and Broadway (or should we call it Man and Broadway?) and secondarily around Commercial Drive Skytrain and Waterfront Station/Gastown.  Women also seem to see people they are attracted to at physical locations like concerts and stores instead of on the bus or walking around town.  In terms of outdoors locations, women prefer to check out attractive people at English Bay and Trout Lake. 

Men, however have completely different people-seeing behaviors.  First, their posts do not cluster like Female-seeking posts.  Men seem to check out attractive people along streets and on transit.  Specifically Men love to seek people all along Commercial drive, Water street, Granville street, Denman Street and 4th Avenue.  Men seem to really enjoy watching people they are attracted to on the bus and at Skytrain stations. According to my data, If you are a straight women and want to get looked at by a gentleman then you should start taking the bus to Kits Beach, Stanley Park, or Commercial Drive. 

Take a gander at the maps below to compare (move the slider to the right to reveal what Woman saw, and to the left to reveal what men saw): 

Naturally we should understand that there are two biases at play with this data which should colour our interpretation:

  • The first: is to understand that that the Straight's readership are typically hip residents of Vancouver, left leaning and generally into living on the East Side. So of course there will be more records in that area (This also explains why I saw no records from the Cambie Pub, Queen Eilizabeth Park, the Gas Town Steam clock or any other heavily trafficked tourist area)
  • The second is that the users of the I saw yous are probably Gen X or younger in terms of age. This means two things: (1) they are probably more keen than older folks to go online and post long shot statements of unrequited longing; and (2) they may feel less inclined to do the old fashioned thing and talk to the person they are checking out in the grocery store ;)

However, these are simply my unsubstantiated assumptions. I therefore challenge the West Vancouver Beacon to prove me wrong by starting their own I Saw You section and to produce data from other demographics as quickly as possible.

BONUS MAPPING

Population change and the geography of desire combined! See any correlations??

As always, if anyone has any suggestions, comments or complaints please contact me aaron @ lgeo.co or leave a comment below.

Thanks so much for reading and happy belated Valentines day!

Aaron

Census 2016: Whither the Regional Growth Strategy

Each week I will be blogging about a different (and interesting) application of GIS that everyone can relate to.  This week I was going to blog about site selection and retail market share.  But instead, to celebrate #Census2016, I thought I would look at Census population growth and Metro Vancouver's Regional Growth Strategy.

Why I want to do this, is to highlight the implications of forecasting for planning decisions and to underline the importance of timely data analysis.  

Some background (Stolen from here):

  • Metro Vancouver 2040: Shaping our Future, the regional growth strategy, represents the collective vision for how our region is going to accommodate the 1 million people and over 500,000 jobs that are expected to come to the region in the next 25 years.
  • Metro 2040 was unanimously adopted in 2011 by 21 municipalities, TransLink and adjacent regional districts. It contains strategies to advance five goals related to urban development, the regional economy, the environment and climate change, housing and community amenities, and integrating land use and transportation.

Of the five goals today I am going to focus on this one:

  • Containing growth within a defined area and channeling it into vibrant, livable Urban Centres

Per table 2 of the strategy, Metro would like to see 29% of new dwellings built by 2021 in Urban Centres (Metropolitan Core, Surrey Metro Centre, Regional City Centres and Municipal Town Centres). Of that new growth, almost equal amounts were targeted for Metro Core and Surrey Metro Centre (22,000 and 18,700 new homes built between 2006-2021 respectively). In total, the RGS was targeting 112,700 new dwellings in all Urban Centres between 2006 and 2021. What I wanted to find out is how well along are various jurrisdictions with respect to their RGS targets!

What I did

  • Downloaded all the Census data for Metro Vancouver for 2011 & 2016;
  • Downloaded all of the nice land use datasets from Metro Vancouver's excellent open data portal;
  • Connected the dots to get totals for various land uses; and
  • Ran some density analyses to get an idea how area population density has changed at a regional level

The Upshot

  • Density has changed significantly in the last five years. Check out the maps below (moving the sider to the Left will show 2011 population density and to the right will show 2016 population density):

Show me something better...

OK, so that's how density looks like, but what about growth and change.  I prepared a second map to show that below:  White outlines are Urban Centres and Designated Frequent Transit Areas. Red colors mean gains in population density from 2011 and blue colours mean losses.

Population Density Changes in Metro Vancouver 2011-2016

Population Density Changes in Metro Vancouver 2011-2016

In terms of density increases, Orange and Dark Red show increases of greater than 5 and 20 persons per hectare respectively.  You'll note some big time growth in the Metro Core (Ie Downtown Vancouver), UBC, Coquitlam, parts of Richmond Centre and a little bit Surrey's City Centre.  However, there is a ton of growth outside of Urban Centres including all sorts of development in Central Surrey, South Surrey,Langley, Northeast Coquitlam and North Delta.  

Even more interesting is where there has been a drop in population.  Check out Richmond, Vancouver's West Side, the District of West Vancouver and 1970s ring suburbs in Surrey, Burnaby, Delta and the Tri-Cities. Now I am willing to bet that Andy Yan has already started to look into into dwelling price appreciation and population declines in Metro Vancouver.  It certainly seems like property speculation is bad for Families. (If Andy doesn't do this analysis, I will get to it in a post in the next few weeks...)

Metro Vancouver Targets: Winners and Losers

This is where it gets fun.  I went and took a look a look at the Metro Vancouver dwelling growth targets for Urban Centres.  Based on Metro's targets dwelling growth in City Centres should be 112,700 units by 2021.  If we extrapolate backwards then expectation would be for  75,133 units to be build between 2006 and 2016.  Using current Census numbers it looks like only 62,600 units were added in these areas.  So in terms of targets, we get an A- at 82% of the way there!  Hot take: Urban intensification in Metro Vancouver is almost meeting targets!...

But, wait there's more! Conveniently Metro has targets for both Downtown Vancouver and Surrey. By 2016 in Downtown Vancouver Metro Vancouver is targeted to have a total of 102,667 units - an increase of 14,667 over 2006. Based on the Census it looks like Downtown Vancouver added an astounding 31,189 units since 2006. Hot take: Downtown Vancouver crushes urban intensification  target!

South of the Fraser it's a different story.  By 2016 in Surrey City Centre is targeted to have a total of 20,767 units - an increase of 12,467 over 2006. Based on the Census it looks like this area added an a measly 3,683 units since 2006 (only 30% of target). Hot take: City of Surrey gets an F for urban intensification!

For most of us in the know, this is not a huge story.  Surrey still has quite a big market for greenfield development and those products are still reasonably affordable.  Presumably the urban infill market will heat up in Central Surrey in longer term.

In any event, I'll be blogging a bit more about population changes in the coming weeks and months. Next week's blog is a valentines special so get excited! As always if you have any comments, suggestions or fixes email me at aaron @ lgeo.co

Aaron

Visualization of Urban Development in the City of Victoria

Each week I will be blogging about a different (and interesting) application of GIS that everyone can relate to.  This week's post is going to talk about geospatial analysis, specifically related to how new construction (ie development) has occurred in the City of Victoria in the last two decades.  What I wanted to do this week was look at (1) how development has generally played out in the City since 1996 and (2) whether or not we could use GIS to discover if there are any catalyzing effects of new development.

Catalyst developments?  Cities occasionally use catalyst developments a strategy to spur urban revitalization.  Catalyst projects can make areas more attractive for citizens and visitors, spur investment and development and add diversity and energy to previously less vibrant areas. The question is:  do catalyst developments actually work and can we possibly identify them through GIS? 

What does this have to do with GIS? Well thanks to the current push for open data and specifically building permit applications (thanks City of Victoria!), we can use GIS to visualize developments by value as they occur over time and space.  We can then use GIS to look at what level of development has occurred downstream in time and space from any possible catalyst location to see if it had any effect on its surrounding neighborhood. 

The set up: For a change, I thought I would use the City of Victoria as an example for this type of analysis.  The City has helpfully made available all of their development permit data from 1994-2017 (including values, purpose and locations).  Its a treasure trove of data!  Being the huge data nerd that I am, the first thing I did was map everything (this may take a minute or two to load..):

All permits in Victoria over time...

All permits in Victoria over time...

What are we looking at? this is every building permit in the City sized by value and displayed by year from 1994-2017.  It's a bit overwhelming, so I filtered down the data quite a bit:

  • First thing was to remove all building permits that were not new construction;
  • Second, I removed any new construction permit that was less than $2,000,000 (not in real dollar terms, that's for a future piece of work);
  • From that, I then mapped the spatial temporal relationships between all of these filtered records of construction;
  • Using these relationships, I assessed where each development fell in time and looked at all developments that occurred after that building permit and were within a 600m radius;
  • I then totaled the values and picked the top 20 developments with initial construction values over $10m and downstream development values of over $40m

If that didn't make any sense, then let's try an example:

In 1999, the Hotel Grand Pacific added new guest rooms and renovated the whole building. At the time, it was a $20m job. 15 years later 21 new developments occurred within a 600m radius of the hotel for a total of $201m in construction permit values.  

Did the hotel redevelopment catalyze development in the area? Well certainly there has been a lot of development in the Downtown Core and in James Bay, so it may be a likely candidate. Luckily we have the rest of the data to use a visual cue, so let's take a look.  The following animation shows the interconnected nature of development in Victoria. You'll note a lot activity in Vic West, along Humboldt Street and in the Downtown core. (the animation may take a few seconds to load so be patient!).  The size of blue circles is the development permit value, and the size of the purple circles is the total accumulated value for each potential catalyst location.   The connecting lines are colored by each catalyst development to give you an idea of area of influence. The table below summarizes the animation.

 
Address Development Year BP Value Accum. Value
843 YATES ST THE WAVE 2004 $12,320,000 $383,016,795
728 HUMBOLDT ST MARIOTT INNER HARBOUR 2002 $15,000,000 $359,478,139
732 CORMORANT ST THE CORAZON 2004 $10,461,126 $356,719,889
760 JOHNSON ST THE JULIETTE 2007 $18,000,000 $351,699,115
758 HUMBOLDT ST ASTORIA 2004 $15,000,000 $333,204,647
1321 BLANSHARD ST THE ATRIUM 2008 $28,835,000 $280,647,380
737 HUMBOLDT ST ARIA PHASE 1 2006 $10,161,872 $271,236,174
1925 BLANSHARD ST SOF MEMORIAL CENTRE 2003 $18,944,000 $264,829,705
861 FAIRFIELD RD MOUNT ST MARY HOSPITAL 2001 $19,000,000 $252,559,414
737 HUMBOLDT ST ARIA PHASE 2 2007 $12,216,000 $239,148,302
788 HUMBOLDT ST THE BELVEDERE 2005 $16,953,258 $232,969,647
843 DOUGLAS ST THE FALLS 2007 $30,200,000 $232,967,137
463 BELLEVILLE ST HOTEL GRAND PACIFIC 1999 $19,584,950 $191,010,340

The Wave or The Marriot?   Well, based on either 12 or 14 years of downstream data, both of these developments may be able to claim "Catalyst" in their title.  You can probably note that the Save-on-Foods Memorial Center and Mount St. Mary Hospital are not far behind... Now, this of course is a basic introduction into a much more complicated question that begs a few caveats...

  • Building permit values are not construction values or actual building values, indeed, they may be off by orders of magnitude.  However, We can potentially use BC assessment data to fill this gap;
  • 600m in space is arbitrary.  If we looked at 200m or 1km would we see a much different answer in terms of spatial effects;
  • Correlation is not causation.  Just because something happened before something else in time, doesn't mean that it caused it.  There are a lot of factors that affect land development and this analysis just scratches the surface on most of them; and
  • The data could be wrong to begin with.  While I am sure that the City took every care to scrub their data in advance of publication, it is highly likely that there are errors in the information.  Assuring the data before using it will very much likely add to any analysis like this in the future.

Standard pitch:  If this was even remotely interesting to you, or if you feel strongly on what I have done here, then do not hesitate to contact me as soon as convenient.  I would love your feedback.  

Coming up next week:  Defining markets through spatial analysis to identify the best location for a new full-service grocery store

 

Population Access to Emergency Services and the New Saint Paul's Hospital

Each week I will be blogging about a different application of GIS that the general population can relate to.  This week's post is going to talk about population accessibility, specifically related to emergency room visits.  First off:

Access to Services and GIS? This is a classic application of GIS.  Simply put, we can use geospatial technology to measure how populations may access services using travel networks.  This is typically done by using shortest path or closest facility algorithms which I won't get into here.  What we will get into is how to measure the impacts of moving a facility for an affected population.

The set up: The population of the City of Vancouver currently can conveniently access Six Emergency rooms in Metro Vancouver (I've discounted BC Children's Hospital so we can focus on population in general).   From this I wanted to find out: 

  • For each block in the City, where is the closest emergency room?
  • On average, how far do Vancouverites (all 602,000 of them in 2011) have to travel to get to an emergency room?
  • For whom in the City is Saint Paul's Hospital the closest ER facility?
  • How much more, or less, further do these folks have to travel should Saint Paul's move to its new location on False Creek?

Some additional assumptions:

  • This is a mini project so I only looked at home-to-emergency room trips via car.  (ambulance dispatch is another project entirely);
  • Since February 6th is still a ways off, I used 2011 Census population data (specifically Census dissemination blocks);
  • All populations are treated equally in this little exercise. In reality, there are populations at risk who tend to use emergency services a lot more. I'm not looking at them right now; and
  • I am looking at distance traveled along roads only and not travel times, though I will likely add this in a later post.  So, for the purposes of this post, we will use distance and time interchangeably (though in reality they couldn't be more different!

So how does Access change after the Saint Paul's Move? (play with the slider! the left side of the slider is the proposed state and the right side is the current state)

Catchment Before After Change
Saint Paul's Hospital 118,736 149,620 30,884
Richmond Hospital 5,851 5,851 0
Burnaby Hospital 108,626 101,987 -6,639
Mount Saint Joseph 201,116 162,384 -38,732
Vancouver General 135,690 149,167 13,477
UBC Hospital 33,483 34,493 1,010

It may be a bit hard to see, but basically moving Saint Paul's hospital puts a lot more people into its catchment versus it's old location in the West End (Each colored line represents the minimum travel distance from a block to it's nearest ER).  The relocation of Saint Paul's reduces potential use of Mount Saint Joseph by taking residents in the DTES and in Mount Pleasant (wait 'till we redo this analysis when the new Census comes out!), but increases potential usage of Vancouver general due to folks in Kitsilano staying on their side of false creek. Overall, it appears as if this balances potential ER usage. However...

What about the change in distance to services after the Saint Paul's Move? 

This is where it gets a bit more interesting (and complicated).  If we take population-weighted City-wide average it looks like average distance to a facility increases by 87m (from 3,132m to 3,219m) or about 2.7%.  

However, when we review distance traveled in summary by current catchments (ie categorizing the population based on the ER they are currently closest to), we are presented with a different picture.  Take for instance what happens to populations currently accessing Saint Paul's in the West End:

Catchment Distance
Traveled
Before (m)
Distance
Traveled
After (m)
Change
Saint Paul's Hospital 1,537 2,584 1,047
Richmond Hospital 6,438 6,438 0
Burnaby Hospital 3,617 3,551 -66
Mount Saint Joseph 3,379 3,061 -318
Vancouver General 3,456 3,452 -4
UBC Hospital 3,845 3,845 0

You'll note that the travel times appear longer (more brown than yellow in the future state). While it is intuitively obvious, it's nice to have a visual that shows how many more people will be potentially travelling longer distances to get to emergency services (That being said, populations at risk will be much closer to the emergency room).  Unfortunately, it is mostly residents of the West End and Kitsilano who may have longer commutes to the ER.  Indeed, for the rest of the City things improve with the Saint Paul's move.  

Refer to the table to the right:  Essentially folks who are currently living in the Saint Paul's catchment (ie Saint Paul's is their closest ER), will have to travel, on average, an extra 1,047m to get to emergency services!  Compare that with individuals who currently are in the Mount Saint Joseph catchment.  Under the proposed change, some of this population will switch to the new False Creek location of Saint Paul's and, as such will have a shorter distance to travel (on average 318m less).  Otherwise things are mostly a wash.

So, you've seen at this very superficial level how we can use GIS to explore how some populations may be inconvenienced by the hospital move. Now of course there are many, many more facets to the analysis.  For instance:

  • what about emergency closing times;
  • wait times;
  • ambulance access;
  • travel times;
  • different modes (such as SkyTrain);
  • different population cohorts;
  • future populations;
  • daytime population; and
  • the list goes on.

The point is that I love doing these types of analyses. If you or your organization has the need to measure how population access will change when you move a facility then please contact me at aaron@lgeo.co and I will be happy to talk about your needs. In the meantime, I would love feedback on this post.  Also if you want to learn more about the Saint Paul's relocation then please check out their website here.  There is much to learn about this interesting project.

Now, I will blogging about intriguing GIS weekly, so if you have an idea for interesting and challenging geospatial analysis, then I will work into my future publications.

-Aaron

Hello World!

Hello world and welcome to Licker Geospatial Consulting Co.'s Blog.

On this blog, you will be able to view and interact with a weekly selection of intriguing GIS, plus random posts related to the business side of LGeo.  Feel free to share, tweet, email, pin, pass and otherwise disseminate anything I post here.  Simply credit myself, Aaron Licker, or my company, LGeo, and everything should be cool. Comments are welcome. Constructive feedback is welcome as well, as I am new to all of this and you folks know much better than myself about how to communicate socially.  To whet your appetites, here is a list of some of the blog topics i'll hit in the next 52 weeks.  More to come and stay excited!  

  • Better mapping the cultural crawl
  • The beard index (hipster businesses, services and urban markings)
  • Optimization of brewery tour routes
  • Density Transects
  • Mapping the effects of moving the hospital
  • Mapping historic streetcar routes and their relation to small scale commercial
  • Machine space calculations
  • Mapping where the worst beer lists are
  • Building permit analysis (i.e. bigger homes or more homes)
  • Transit density analysis based on google transit feed
  • Mapping historic rail lines that are now roads or alleyways
  • Mapping suburban intrusions into the urban fabric (chains versus independents), unique versus homogenized landscapes.
  • Open data monthly – deriving insights from random community’s open data stacks
  • Mapping cultures and sub-cultures
  • Random geography questions - how far do I have to walk to get to a:
    • Bus stop in Mississauga
    • Depaneur in Montreal
    • Donair joint in Halifax
    • BBQ place in Austin
    • Coffee shop in Portland

-Aaron